Alphractal

Bitcoin has broken its all-time high in BTCUSD for the third time, similar to the previous cycle. Since the bottom in November 2022, BTC has already gained +600%, still far below the +2000% from the previous cycle and way behind the massive +8500% from 2015 to the end of 2017. In addition to the declining performance, this is the first time in history that Bitcoin has set a new all-time high with several months of separation within the same bull cycle. This shows a market that is becoming increasingly complex, demanding the use of strong metrics and smart data to understand and anticipate new moves. Visit Alphractal.com and discover the Alpha!

🔥Leverage in the Crypto Market: The 4 Key Scenarios Do you know what can happen when Open Interest (OI) and the Long/Short Ratio (LSR) move together? Here are the 4 scenarios that reveal market sentiment and risk: 🔎 Scenario 1: OI ↑ and LSR ↑ More open contracts and more longs. 🪙 Examples: ETH, TRX, UNI, DOT, CHZ, WIF, VET, SAND, LAND, EGLD, INJ, SUN, FET, LTC, TRUMP Interpretation: – Traders are heavily betting on a price increase. – May signal euphoria or excessive optimism. What could happen: – Risk of a long squeeze if the price drops. – Mass liquidations could accelerate the downward move. 🟢 Uptrend with risk of reversal if optimism is overextended (contrarian signal). 🔎 Scenario 2: OI ↓ and LSR ↓ Fewer contracts and fewer longs (or more shorts). 🪙 Examples: BNX, KAITO, ZEC, IP, EOS, BB, ALPACA, STO, BABY Interpretation: – Traders are closing positions and reducing risk. – Dominated by bearish sentiment. What could happen: – Could precede a bullish reversal if fear is overdone. – Lower leverage = less potential for sharp moves. 🟡 Overall deleveraging and possible exhaustion of selling pressure. 🔎 Scenario 3: OI ↑ and LSR ↓ More open contracts and more shorts. 🪙 Examples: XMR, AAVE, MASK, ORCA, CVC Interpretation: – Heavy short positioning. – New capital entering to bet on the downside. What could happen: – If price rises, short squeeze could occur. – Forced liquidations may drive a sharp move upward. 🔴 High probability of a bullish reversal if buying pressure appears. 🔎 Scenario 4: OI ↓ and LSR ↑ ⚠️ Fewer contracts, but more longs. 🪙 Examples: SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, RUNE, AXS, APT, PEPE, SUI, NEAR, ONDO, TIA, BONK Interpretation: – Capital is exiting, but remaining traders are betting on the upside. – May reflect weak confidence in longs. What could happen: – Without buying strength, longs may be liquidated. – Lacks momentum for sustained upward moves. 🟠 Unstable setup with downside risk if breaks. 🔁 Share this with anyone trading with leverage! 📌 Understanding these setups can put you several steps ahead of the market. Alphractal.com

🚨Bitcoin and the Open Interest Cycle: Is History Repeating Itself? When Whales Reveal Their Next Moves 🔍 The 30-day aggregated Open Interest Delta has just reached the same levels seen back in 2024 — when Bitcoin was breaking new all-time highs near $73K. 📈 A familiar pattern is emerging: alternating cycles of increase and decrease in the Open Interest Delta — what we might call Phase 1 and Phase 2. After a strong buildup of positions (positive Delta), we often see a nearly proportional drop (negative Delta), showing clear cyclical behavior in the market. 🧠 Looking at the 180-day Delta, things get even more interesting: Sharp drops often signal mass liquidations of over-leveraged long positions. When the Delta turns negative, it usually indicates a market bottom or accumulation zone. ⚠️ Right now, the 180-day Delta is on the verge of turning negative — a sign that more volatility may be coming, but also that a new consolidation phase is likely. 📊 Overall, Open Interest has not grown proportionally like it did from October 2023 to early 2024 — and again from October 2024 into early 2025. These yearly patterns may suggest a fractal behavior in investor risk appetite. 🐋 : watching Open Interest across major exchanges is one of the best ways to gauge the risk appetite of large whales, as most of these positions are driven by institutional players. Alphractal.com

🚨 Bitcoin is in a Crucial Zone of Indecision! The Long-Term Realized Cap Impulse is a powerful metric that analyzes Realized Cap momentum, offering true on-chain insight into Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. The horizontal line markers highlight curious zones of and resistance — and right now, Bitcoin is testing a critical region. A breakout from this level would strongly signal continued demand and potential price appreciation. ⚠️But there’s an important historical observation: this same region was rejected just before the March 2020 Corona Dump, triggering a massive market selloff. In short, we’re standing at a pivotal moment. For the more cautious investor, this might be a time to watch, not act — as risk can be high in such sensitive zones. We'll revisit this post in the future to see how BTC price reacted. 🧠 Explore our FREE metrics and use the coupon ALTCOIN to get 10% OFF the Pro plan during your trial.  👉 Access now at Alphractal.com

🚨X Sentiment and News Sentiment Drop Again, Even with BTC Trading Above $96K When analyzing the 7-day average sentiment, we can clearly see how powerful this metric is compared to price action. In nearly every case where sentiment turned extremely negative, Bitcoin formed a local bottom and rallied against the crowd's emotions. Looking at the raw daily data, sentiment is once again in the negative zone — showing current disbelief in the market. This could be driven by macroeconomic or political factors, or simply a lack of hope for the crypto space in 2025. While negative average sentiment often signals strong local bottoming opportunities, it's important to note that in prolonged bear markets — like in 2022 — negative sentiment persisted alongside falling prices. That’s why a broader view using Alpha-grade metrics is key for a more solid conclusion. Try all our metrics free for 3 days or explore our free indicators now. Visit Alphractal.com

🚨 U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Hits New All-Time High in 2025! 🚨 🧩 Key Drivers Behind the 2025 Spike: 🔹Extreme tariffs: The second Trump istration raised tariffs on major trade partners — starting at 10%, then 25%, and up to 145% in strategic sectors — increasing input costs and undermining corporate planning. 🔹Debt ceiling reinstated: On January 2, 2025, the debt limit was reset to $36.1 trillion, triggering fears of a technical default amid intense debates in Congress over suspension or repeal. 🔹Monetary uncertainty: The Federal Reserve held rates at 4.25%–4.50% and delayed cuts, partially due to inflation driven by imported goods under high tariffs. 🔹Declining trust in the dollar: Protectionist measures and financial sanctions damaged the dollar’s credibility as a safe haven, prompting investors to seek alternative reserve assets. 🔹Regulatory volatility: Reversals in policies related to AI, antitrust, ESG, and energy created an unpredictable environment for businesses. 🔹Geopolitical tensions: The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war and new crises in the Middle East disrupted global supply chains and heightened risk perception. 🔹Budget deadlocks: Frequent “continuing resolutions” and micro-legislative disputes over spending fueled fiscal volatility. ⚠️ Investors should brace for continued market turbulence and reassess their allocations in equities, bonds, and crypto by applying effective risk management strategies and leveraging advanced metrics. 👉 Explore our Alpha Metrics Collection at alphractal.com

Why is interest in the Bitcoin blockchain still low, even with BTC above $95K? Despite Bitcoin trading above $95,000, on-chain activity remains surprisingly weak. Transaction volume and active addresses are still at low levels, even amid market enthusiasm. Why is this happening? Here are the main reasons: 1. Price driven by external factors: BTC's current value is more influenced by capital inflows through spot ETFs and institutional interest than by real blockchain usage. 2. Historically low volatility: With little price movement, there's less incentive for traders to act — which means fewer on-chain transactions. 3. Artificial exchange volumes: Some exchange volume may be inflated, creating a misleading sense of activity while real network usage stays modest. 4. Limited practical demand: The price is sustained more by speculation via derivatives and financial instruments than by everyday adoption of the blockchain. 5. Market in consolidation phase: Investors are waiting for clearer signals or macro developments, leading to reduced coin movement. 6. Adoption of second layers like Lightning Network: With more transactions shifting off-chain, especially to Lightning, mainnet activity appears lower. 7. Speculative use moving to other chains: Networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Base are attracting DeFi, staking, and memecoin activity — areas that typically drive heavy traffic. Bitcoin’s high price doesn't necessarily mean increased blockchain usage. We're witnessing a shift: BTC is treated more like a financial asset, while on-chain dynamism is happening elsewhere. Access our free metrics and try the 3-day Trial at alphractal.com

🚨We're Still in a Bitcoin Season — But an Altcoin Season Is Coming Soon! According to the Altcoin Season Index, only a few altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 60 days. The exceptions are mostly newly launched tokens, while older altcoins continue to show weak performance. 📊 Additionally, the Bitcoin vs. Altcoin Positioning metric clearly highlights regions where Bitcoin dominates (orange), where Altcoins gain strength (blue), and where no clear signal suggests that staying out of both Bitcoin and Altcoins is the best strategy — as neither presents ideal trading conditions. 🟠 Currently, we're in a Bitcoin Season, as indicated by the orange signal. 🔵 But in the coming days and weeks, either no signals will appear, or Altcoin signals will start to prevail — meaning the Altcoin Season could officially begin. 📉 Historically, altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin when BTC enters a short-term downtrend or a sideways consolidation phase. 🚨 Stay alert — great opportunities may be just around the corner! 👉 Visit Alphractal.com and don’t miss the next signals.

📉 Whales Are Showing Renewed Interest in Shorts and Closing Longs Around $95K! 🐋💥 If the metric continues to decline, it’s likely that BTC will also correct. If not, the uptrend may continue. That’s the signal from the Whale Position Sentiment! 🔍 This innovative indicator tracks aggregated Open Interest alongside the largest trades (≥ $1M) across major exchanges. It acts as a sentiment oscillator, revealing how big players are positioned in crypto derivatives. 📊 When the metric starts to drop — even as price rises — it’s a sign that whales are entering short positions. When it climbs, the price often follows, signaling long positions by whales. ✅ With a 93% historical correlation to Bitcoin’s price action, this metric is a powerful com for identifying market tops and bottoms. Stay alert: the next big move might be forming right now. Alphractal.com

⏳Bitcoin’s Repetition Fractal Cycle: 6 Months to Go — Will History Repeat Itself? In November 2024, we highlighted Bitcoin’s extraordinary 4-year fractal cycle, repeating consistently since 2015: accumulation, markup (uptrend), distribution, and a year-long bear market. Back then, we projected a potential cycle top between October 12-16, 2025. Now, with just 6 months left until the expected top, the fractal remains intact — and Bitcoin continues to strengthen its case as the most symmetrical asset in financial history. Since 2015, it has flawlessly marked each cycle’s top and bottom without a single miss, an unprecedented feat in the world of finance. We are still deep within the markup phase, and the window of opportunity remains open. If history rhymes once more, the coming months could deliver remarkable movements before reaching the distribution phase. Only time will tell if Bitcoin will once again honor its powerful and precise fractal. For now, the structure remains unbroken — a testament to Bitcoin’s resilience and its fascinating behavior in a volatile market. Let’s keep watching: the final stretch has begun. Metric development credits: João Wedson 🔗Alphractal.com